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Morning Check-In: Unemployment outlook is good...

It remains the pillar of our Real Estate tri-pod that is in question during the COVID pandemic and recession but the numbers are better than some probably fear:

The first report after the 2020 shutdown did show a 14.7% unemployment rate, but much to the surprise of many analysts, the rate has decreased each of the last three months and is now in the single digits (8.4%).

Economist Jason Furman, Professor at Harvard University‘s John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the previous administration, recently put it into context:

    “An unemployment rate of 8.4% is much lower than most anyone would have thought it a few months ago. It is still a bad recession but not a historically unprecedented event or one we need to go back to the Great Depression for comparison.”

The economists surveyed by the WSJ also forecasted unemployment rates going forward:

    2021: 6.3%

    2022: 5.2%

    2023: 4.9%

The following table shows how the current employment situation compares to other major disruptions in our economy:

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